MODERATE RISK SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR OKLAHOMA — SATURDAY, APRIL 25, 2026

Oklahoma faces another dangerous severe weather day Saturday as the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk — Level 3 out of 5 — for severe thunderstorms across central and southeastern Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas. The risk comes just two days after an EF-4 tornado caused extensive damage in Enid.

The Setup

A potent mid-level shortwave trough is moving eastward out of the southern Rockies Saturday morning, sweeping into the southern Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a deepening low over northwest Texas is helping surge Gulf moisture northward into Oklahoma, with dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 60s°F — unusually rich for late April. Two surface boundaries will focus storm development: an outflow boundary lifting from north Texas northward into southern Oklahoma, and a cold front approaching from central Oklahoma. The intersection of these two zones is expected to ignite supercell thunderstorms by early to mid-afternoon.

The atmosphere will be primed with forecast instability (MLCAPE) of 3,000 to 4,000 joules per kilogram across far southern Oklahoma by late afternoon — an exceptionally volatile environment. Combined with a 25 to 30 knot low-level jet and storm-relative helicity values in the 300 to 400 range, the atmosphere will be very favorable for discrete supercells.

Hazard Threats

The primary hazard is very large hail, with hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter — larger than a baseball — explicitly called for in the SPC outlook. A threat for strong tornadoes is also present, accentuated by the low-level shear profile near the outflow boundary. Damaging wind gusts will also be possible, especially later in the evening as storms potentially organize into clusters pushing toward the ArkLaTex.

Timing

Storm initiation is expected between 1 and 4 PM CDT, with the peak severe threat window running from roughly 4 PM to 10 PM CDT across Oklahoma. Activity will continue pushing southeastward through overnight into far eastern Oklahoma and adjacent Arkansas and Texas.

Regional Highlights

Central and northeast Oklahoma — including the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas — carry the highest threat today. Southern and southeastern Oklahoma, including Lawton, McAlester, and Idabel, will see elevated storm and flash flooding risk into Saturday night. The Panhandle and far northwest will experience gusty south winds but lower direct storm threat.

Safety Reminder

The Enid EF-4 tornado recovery is ongoing — debris fields increase dangers if new storms strike damaged areas. All Oklahomans should confirm their shelter plan before storms develop this afternoon. Activate a weather alert app or NOAA Weather Radio, identify an interior shelter away from windows, and avoid travel during severe warnings.

ONWN will provide continuous coverage throughout the day. Check back for updates.